Middle east war. No way out for All

 The U.S. has reached another big decision point in the Iran war:

By Richereeld Fontaine 

1. Tuesday evening is the latest deadline for the President’s promised attacks, ones so severe that “it will take them 100 years to rebuild.” Iran promises to retaliate by striking civilian infrastructure across the region. Both sides know that in an all-out energy war, everyone loses.

2. Trump's three broad options are to (1) declare victory and end fighting, (2) escalate, or (3) cut a deal. He clearly wants a deal and has been signaling that every way possible for weeks now. It would be great for Iran to accept the deal the administration put forward, but it won’t. Iran has put forth its own peace proposal with completely unacceptable terms.

3. Weeks ago, the President might have declared victory and come home, going on to spin the outcome as success (we've already won, they surrendered, the regime has changed, etc.). After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, however, that's not a real option - it'll be clear to all that Tehran controls a key energy chokepoint. That is hardly a victory for the United States and should be considered an unacceptable endgame.

4. It should also be unacceptable to most of the world. The President haranguing allies to jump in the fight has been counterproductive, but he’s right that many countries must resist an Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz. A situation in which Tehran imposes tolls on ships passing through – and could shut down access at any time – enriches and empowers a still-radical regime.

5. That leaves escalation, which seems likely as an effort to move Iran toward a deal. Escalation could include the strikes on power plants and bridges Trump keeps talking about. It could involve sending troops ashore along the coastline that abuts the Strait. It might mean seizing Kharg Island.

6. Even if all that happens, however, it may not solve the key problem, which remains Iranian control of the Strait. Enough military action over enough time will probably render Iran unable to block the Strait. But that could be a long time.

7. As the President’s self-imposed deadline looms, one must also worry about credibility. Trump has several times set deadlines for attacks on Iranian infrastructure and then extended them. Last month he said the US was talking to a top person in Iran and had reached many points of agreement. The President might be sincere now and the Iranians may think he’s blustering - or moveable.

8. They also may prefer once again to ride out the strikes. It took eight years before Tehran drank from the poisoned chalice and agreed to a ceasefire with Iraq. That was the 1980s, but a similar revolutionary ideology still animates the leadership. Regime survival is everything.

9. A narrow ceasefire agreement, in which Iran frees up the Strait but agrees to few or none of the other US demands, is perhaps the likeliest outcome. It might also be the best realistic option. The regime will stay in place, significantly weakened but hardened, bent on rebuilding its civilian and military infrastructure, and believing that it taught the US a lesson. The US will focus on containment, attempt to stop Iran’s military and nuclear reconstitution, and hope for an eventual change in Iranian leadership. The prospect of renewed conflict will remain high.